Experts like McDonald broadly expect young people and minorities to again increase their turnout more in 2020 than older people and white people will. States of Change, a nonpartisan project studying shifts in the electorate, projects that Millennials (born, according to the organization’s definition, from 1981 to 2000) will constitute 34.2 percent of eligible voters next year. And while the minority population is growing steadily in existing and emerging Sun Belt battlegrounds—such as Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and even Texas—Trump has demonstrated a formidable ability to offset that change by turning out older, rural, evangelical, and blue-collar white people in those places. Teixeira is one of many Democratic strategists who say the party’s top priority must remain regaining those Rust Belt states, because it cannot yet rely enough on the Sun Belt. In relying as heavily on working-class white people as he does, Trump is pushing against a demographic current that has steadily run in the opposite direction for many years. Yet one of the key questions for 2020 is whether Democrats will benefit as much from the likely expansion of the electorate. The Texas Secretary of State does not appear to share this goal. Therefore, voters who might not feel that their views are represented in a two-party race would turn out to the polls to support their preferred candidate. That still left young people far behind the turnout rate among seniors, about two-thirds of whom voted, but their rate of increase from the previous election was much greater. You'll get email alerts when there is new content in this series. In 2018, though, those patterns altered. How to increase voter turnout? Help us spread the love by pitching in today! Citizens will turnout in maximum numbers because they can’t stand someone they hate; someone they can’t imagine representing them. These shifts have enormous implications because of the generational gulf in attitudes toward Trump and the parties more broadly. Not only is this an excellent way to help your loved ones get registered, but it’s also a way to help increase voter turnout, which is just as important. In polls, very high shares of Americans already say they are paying a lot of attention to the 2020 presidential race. And college-educated whites have drifted up, from 24 percent in 1992 to 30 percent in 2016. And since World War II, the highest turnout level came in 1960, with John F. Kennedy’s win, when 63.8 percent of voters participated. It’s not going to happen on its own; Trump alone is not going to do it.”. It represents, in effect, the denominator in the equation; the numerator is how big a share of eligible voters in each group shows up. A National Popular Vote (NPV) for president, which would make every vote in every state equally valuable in every election, would expand presidential campaigns from just ten states to all 50. Turnout typically falls for all voter groups in midterm elections compared with the previous presidential race, but that falloff was much smaller than usual last year. With Trump on the ballot directly, Republicans hope that 2020 will produce a surge not only in the younger and nonwhite voters who increased their participation in 2018, but also the non-college-educated whites at the foundation of the president’s support, who lagged last year. Since 18-year-olds were granted the vote, the highest showing was the 61.6 percent of eligible voters who showed up in 2008, leading to Barack Obama’s victory. In last year’s midterm, nearly 120 million people voted, about 35 million more than in the previous midterm, in 2014, with 51 percent of eligible voters participating—a huge increase over the previous three midterms. Unless and until Democrats can tip some of the potential Sun Belt battlegrounds, particularly Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, the party can’t reach 270 Electoral College votes without recapturing some of the Rust Belt states least affected by demographic change. Those states, for years to come, will remain older and whiter than the nation overall, meaning that to win them, Democrats have to run better with older, whiter voters than they do in most places. I think it’s on both sides.”, Read: The Democratic debate over winning back Trump’s base. Arizona, they haven’t won in a million years. With Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency stirring such strong emotions among both supporters and opponents, strategists in both parties and academic experts are now bracing for what Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in voting behavior, recently called “a voter turnout storm of a century in 2020.”. The nature of the population eligible to vote is evolving in a way that should indeed help Democrats. Since people of color are now approaching a majority of the under-18 population—and also constitute most immigrants—McDonald and other experts believe it’s likely that minorities represent a majority of the people who have become eligible to vote since 2016. That means those two groups combined will virtually equal the share of eligible voters composed of Baby Boomers (28.4 percent) and the Silent and Greatest Generations (another 9.4 percent).

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